Our 2015 Oscar predictions in every category

Like most Oscar years, this one has some races that are agonisingly close — and others you might as well consider foregone conclusions (our early congratulations, Julianne Moore and J.K. Simmons!).

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But we’re gonna call ’em anyway. So get out your Oscar ballots, because here are our 2015 Academy Award predictions in every category — even the smaller ones, like Best Documentary Short, Best Sound Editing, and Best Gaffer (OK, that last one doesn’t exist, but shouldn’t it?). Because when it comes to earning bragging rights (and maybe some moolah, too) in your office Oscar pool, every point counts.

Best Picture

Best Picture has been a two-horse race since the beginning of awards season, with Richard Linklater’s extraordinary coming-of-age opus Boyhood and Alejandro González Iñárritu’s captivating showbiz black comedy Birdman going head-to-head. We’re now in the 11th hour — voting just closed Tuesday — and while the two are still in heated competition, the match did get a lot more interesting when Birdman recently landed a trifecta of big guild wins, taking top prizes from the PGA, DGA, and SAG. Unsurprisingly, it’s now considered the front-runner, but I’m sticking with the early favourite, Boyhood, here, with the idea that the Academy will spread the love around (more on that in the next category).

* 2015 Oscar nominations: The full list

As for a potential split-vote upset: At one point, I had a sneaking suspicion that the uproar over the snubbing of Ava DuVernay’s MLK biopic Selma might propel it to underdog victory, much the same way that Ben Affleck’s directorial diss for Argo in 2013 rallied voters to back it for Best Picture.

But that seems unlikelier by the day. If any film is poised to pull off a surprise win, it’s Clint Eastwood’s cultural phenomenon of a war movie, American Sniper, which continues to kill at the box office and is on course to become the highest-grossing movie of 2014(!).

Our prediction: Boyhood
Don’t be surprised by: Birdman
Dark horse: American Sniper

Best Director

To understand this year’s directors’ race, one must look at last year’s contest, which pitted two clear-cut potential winners — 12 Years a Slave and Gravity — against one another. The former was thought to have the stronger narrative and make a deeper emotional impact, while the latter was a technical marvel to behold. As a result, 12 Years won Best Picture, Alfonso Cuarón won Best Director for Gravity, and everyone went home happy.

While Best Picture/Best Director splits are historically rare, I predict another one this year — and the precedent set in 2014 says Boyhood gets Best Picture, while Iñárritu takes best director. Linklater certainly deserves all the accolades for devoting more than 12 years of his life and career to one of film’s all-time great experiments, but backstories aside, Iñárritu’s work behind the camera on Birdman — specifically his crafting of those long one-take shots — could be studied by young and aspiring filmmakers for decades to come.

Our prediction: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Don’t be surprised by: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Dark horse: Clint Eastwood, American Sniper

Best Actor

Here’s another race that’s seen some late-game intrigue: Michael Keaton long seemed the favourite for his art-imitates-life take on an actor who’s struggled to repeat the success he had playing an iconic superhero in Birdman. But that all changed the night the SAG Awards doled out their Best Actor trophy to Eddie Redmayne for his versatile and physically challenging portrayal of Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. Redmayne has all the momentum — and it’s worth noting he’s been hitting the campaign trail hard — but I still think it goes to Keaton, the sentimental favourite who’s never been nominated before, and who gives a career-best performance as Riggan Thompson.

Our prediction: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Don’t be surprised by: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Dark horse: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

Best Actress

Unlike the first three categories, this one doesn’t have much suspense. Julianne Moore, who’s been nominated for four previous Oscars (Boogie Nights, The End of the Affair, The Hours, and Far From Heaven) but has never heard her name called, will win here, and with good reason: In Still Alice, she delivers a devastating performance as a successful author/professor/mother walloped by the effects of early-onset Alzheimer’s. She recently told Parade that winning an Oscar would be a “very, very big deal” because it comes from her peers. That’s exactly the reason she’ll prevail — she’s one of the most respected actresses in the biz. A win by anyone else at this point would be a shocker.

Our prediction: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

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Best Supporting Actor

Along with Best Actress and Best Cinematography, this is the easiest category to predict. Expect J K Simmons to rush, not drag, to the stage when he takes home the trophy for his turn as a sadistic jazz instructor in Whiplash. The performance is, in this writer’s opinion, the single best of the year in all acting categories — the type of dominant, jolting, drink-your-milkshake acting clinic that gets etched into your mind for good. So far, the Golden Globes, SAGs, and every other reputable org that hands out movie trophies have agreed and given one to Simmons, and we hope he’s saved room on his mantel for an Oscar.

Our prediction: J K Simmons, Whiplash
Don’t be surprised by: J K Simmons, Whiplash
Dark horse: J K Simmons, Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress

At this point, there’s also not a ton of suspense when it comes to Best Supporting Actress, which Patricia Arquette has locked up at the Golden Globes, SAGs, and BAFTAs, among other stops. She gives an extraordinary performance as an ordinary woman navigating the oftentimes rocky terrain of single motherhood in Boyhood. But this is the category where we saw Mira Sorvino (Mighty Aphrodite) and Marisa Tomei (My Cousin Vinny) pull mega-upsets, so anything can happen. (If I had my druthers, it’d go to Emma Stone for her fierce turn in Birdman.)

Our prediction: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Dark horse: Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Original Screenplay

Wes Anderson’s imaginative caper The Grand Budapest Hotel was a surprise hit with the Academy this year, earning nine nominations — a feat equalled only by Birdman — so you’d think it would take a couple of statuettes home. Here’s one category where it should prevail, especially considering Anderson (who’s never won an Oscar) is one of the most respected writer-directors in the biz. The fact that he just took top honours from the WGA makes him close to a lock, unless Boyhood or Birdman fever sweeps the night.

Our prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Don’t be surprised by: Birdman
Dark horse: Boyhood

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Imitation Game also fared extremely well this year — it nabbed eight nominations — and it’s been a strong presence all through awards season, though it’s mostly played bridesmaid to brides like Boyhood and Birdman. Graham Moore, who expertly adapted Andrew Hodges’s bio Alan Turing: The Enigma, also won this past weekend at the WGAs. If there’s a threat, then it’s Damien Chazelle’s Whiplash, though its inclusion here caused some minor controversy: The Academy ruled it qualified as an adapted work because it was based on a short film Chazelle produced to generate funds for a full feature.

Our prediction: The Imitation Game
Don’t be surprised by: Whiplash
Dark horse: The Theory of Everything

Best Animated Feature
The next three categories all had major snubbings, but none was bigger than the exclusion of The Lego Movie. Everything is not awesome, Academy! Now that that’s out of the way, given what we have to work with, this race likely comes down to a battle between DreamWorks’ high-flying sequel How to Train Your Dragon 2 and Disney/Marvel’s action-packed hit Big Hero 6. Dragon 2 is considered the favourite, but it was a step down from its predecessor, and only one sequel has ever won in this category (Toy Story 3, which beat Dragon 1), so I’m leaning toward the more original entry, Hero 6 (which sounds like a sequel but is not).

Our prediction: Big Hero 6
Don’t be surprised by: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Dark horse: The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Documentary

Surprisingly left off the ballot here was Steve James’s Roger Ebert doc Life Itself, which was beloved by film critics (no surprise there). It probably would not have been a match, however, for Laura Poitras’s intriguing tell-all featuring surveillance whistleblower Edward Snowden, Citizenfour. That has to be considered the No. 1 choice, though don’t count out an upset by either Finding Vivian Maier (a fanciful look at the late street photographer) or Virunga (the Leonardo DiCaprio-produced exposé of the poaching of endangered gorillas in the Congo).

Our prediction: Citizenfour
Don’t be surprised by: Virunga
Dark Horse: Finding Vivian Maier

Best Foreign-language Film

We would’ve loved to see the Swedish family psychodrama Force Majeure make the cut here — it was one of our favourite films of all of 2014, and you should give it a look. That said, the Polish import Ida, a profound black-and-white tale about a young nun-to-be who discovers she’s Jewish, is the clear consensus for front-runner among pundits, and its inclusion in the Best Cinematography category should give it some extra oomph. Russia’s Leviathan, which pulled an upset at the Golden Globes, still stands a chance to repeat here as well.

Our prediction: Ida
Don’t be surprised by: Leviathan
Dark horse: Wild Tales

Best Cinematography

There’s simply no stopping a victory for Birdman director of photography Emmanuel Lubezki, whose “How did they do that?” work has floored audiences, giving off the visual impression that it was all filmed in a single take. It’s the most incredible cinematography we’ve seen since Gravity... for which Lubezki won an Oscar last year (his first after five previous nominations). The only suspense here is whether the category’s presenters can properly pronounce the name of Mr Turner cinematographer Dick Pope.

Our prediction: Birdman

Best Original Score

Experts appear to be pretty evenly split in this category, which pits Jóhann Jóhannsson‘s work on The Theory of Everything against Alexandre Desplat‘s on The Grand Budapest Hotel. The latter is a double nominee, also up for The Imitation Game, which could work for or against him. I’m going with the lush and resonant classical soundtrack to Theory, though I would’ve supported Antonio Sanchez’s (snubbed) pulsating drum track behind Birdman over everything.

Our prediction: The Theory of Everything
Don’t be surprised by: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dark horse: Interstellar

Best Original Song

I walked out of an early screening of The Lego Movie more than a year ago proclaiming the ridiculously catchy “Everything Is Awesome” would (and should) win the Oscar. I’m stubbornly sticking with it, even if the inspiring rap-soul track Glory by John Legend and Common (from Selma) has become the odds-on favourite.

Our prediction: “Everything Is Awesome,” The Lego Movie
Don’t be surprised by: “Glory,” Selma
Dark horse: “I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me

Best Costume Design

It’s always dicey to bet against Colleen Atwood in this category — she’s the Meryl Streep of costume designers, with 11 nominations and three previous wins. Her latest nomination is for Into the Woods, but she’s competing against Milena Canonero, who, as it turns out, is the Kate Winslet of costume designers (work with me), with nine noms and three previous wins. Her haughty, pastel-heavy Budapest fits win out here.

Our prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Don’t be surprised by: Into the Woods
Dark horse: Maleficent

Best Editing

Richard Linklater has been the face of the filmmaking triumph that is Boyhood (even more so than the actual face of Boyhood, Ellar Coltrane), but behind every great director is a great editor, and he has one of the best in the business in Sandra Adair. Working on the film as long as Linklater, Adair helped create a strong narrative out of more than a decade’s worth of footage, no easy task. Also in the running: the frenetically paced jazz thriller Whiplash.

Our prediction: Boyhood
Don’t be surprised by: Whiplash
Dark horse: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

There are three very worthy contenders here: The Grand Budapest Hotel could win solely on the strength of a nearly unrecognisable Tilda Swinton as an elderly aristocrat, or Foxcatcher for Steve Carell’s captivating schnoz. But pound for pound, I’ve gotta go with the colourful and eclectic palette of work done by a team of 50 artists on the megahit Guardians of the Galaxy. (Only two of said artists would collect Oscars.)

Our prediction: Guardians of the Galaxy
Don’t be surprised by: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dark horse: Foxcatcher

Best Production Design

The painstaking process behind the making of The Grand Budapest Hotel has already inspired a full-length book. Charged with executing on Wes Anderson’s vision from thumbnail sketches to finished product were Adam Stockhausen (a nominee last year for 12 Years a Slave) and Anna Pinnock (also nominated this year for Into the Woods), and it’s hard to see them not getting rewarded for their eye-popping work.

Our prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Don’t be surprised by: Into the Woods
Dark horse: Mr. Turner

Best Visual Effects

Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar may not have been the life-changing, nomination-gobbling force many hoped it would be, but its visuals were still indeed awe-inspiring. The film has some healthy competition in the similarly intergalactic Guardians and the simian-centric Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, but it should rage against the dying of the light.

Our prediction: Interstellar
Don’t be surprised by: Guardians of the Galaxy
Dark horse: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Sound Editing

This is the point in our predictions where we have to take an annual refresher class on the difference between sound editing (the creation or design of new sounds) and sound mixing (the way sounds are mixed and layered). Now that that’s out of the way, Interstellar sounded massive and spectacular.

Our prediction: Interstellar
Don’t be surprised by: American Sniper
Dark horse: Birdman

Best Sound Mixing

The sound editing and mixing Oscars often go hand in hand, with the awards going to the same movie six out of the last 10 years. Another pattern to consider: Best Sound Editing typically goes to the very loud action-packed movies, while Best Sound Mixing occasionally veers off and goes to musicals like Les Mis, Dreamgirls, and Ray. Into the Woods isn’t nominated here, but the jazz-themed Whiplash is, so you very well could see a split.

Our prediction: Whiplash
Don’t be surprised by: Interstellar
Dark horse: Birdman

Best Live Action Short

It almost seems like an unfair advantage when you have big stars in a nominated short, but that’s the case with the sombre drama The Phone Call, starring Sally Hawkins and featuring the voice of Jim Broadbent. It’s very well made, and it’s the clear favourite, but I’m going with the more uplifting, more emotionally resonant Swiss short Parvaneh, about an Afghan girl struggling in her adopted country.

Our prediction: Parvaneh
Don’t be surprised by: The Phone Call
Dark horse: Boogaloo and Graham

Best Animated Short

It also seems unfair any time there’s a Disney product in the running in this category... but in the case of Feast, a funny, heartfelt comedy about the world’s unhealthiest dog that feels straight out of Pixar’s golden age, any love that comes its way is completely warranted. It should win easily here, though I wouldn’t mind in the slightest if the highly inspired, two-minute-long A Single Life — about a magic piece of vinyl — pulls an upset.

Our prediction: Feast
Dark horse: A Single Life

Best Documentary Short

As with its long-form counterpart, there’s plenty of dramatic weight in the docu shorts category, beginning with HBO’s Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, which makes a fitting nonfiction companion piece to issues Clint Eastwood illuminates in American Sniper. Equally difficult to watch — and equally strong a contender — is Poland’s Joanna, about a young mom with terminal cancer who blogs to leave memories for her young son.

Our prediction: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Don’t be surprised by: Joanna
Dark horse: Our Curse

This article originally appeared on Yahoo Movies